There are many tributaries in the flow of trade.
The tributaries are routes that expand and contract in response to bottlenecks. When there is a blockage, there is an immediate reaction to navigate around the clog by identifying alternative country sources or routes to avoid the bottleneck. This is how tributaries are created.
At the start of the war, I warned about Helium, a byproduct of LNG, and its potential impact on the supply chain. Now, weeks later, the shortage concerns dominate headlines. This is why I say trade provides the actionable tea leaves.
When you identify a bottleneck at its onset, you need to get a complete picture. Not just the shiny penny headline commodity. Only a deep dive into the origin of the bottleneck and identifying what flows through it provides you with the actionable information on the ripple effects that will be felt throughout the supply chain.
Today’s reversal of the two Qatari LNG vessels originally bound to traverse the Strait of Hormuz is an example of the strangulation of trade.
