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Trump Tariff Threat and Iran War Juicing Trade

Geopolitics fueling freight but for how long?

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Lori Ann LaRocco
Jul 02, 2026
∙ Paid

  • Companies pulling forward freight because of geopolitical uncertainty

  • AI freight volume is strong and not following any seasonal freight trends

The threat of new Trump tariffs coupled with the Iran War is the juice behind this early peak season.

Trade data shows the coveted boxes continue to make their way to the U.S. market. The leading indicator tracking the demand is the Ocean Booking Index.

In a client note, Dimerco advises pre-booking three to four weeks ahead due to tight space on the Transpacific route. Dimerco explained stronger-than-expected US import demand is keeping space tight and rates firm through peak season. The big transshipment hubs, Singapore and Port Klang, are tightening due to blank sailings, which is also creating congestion. Roll over risk from mid-July is also increasing.

So what exactly is traveling on the water superhighway?

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